The latest judgment of China Banking Research Institute： It is estimated that China’s GDP will increase by 5% in the third quarter.

　　On July 1,The Institute released the Economic and Financial Outlook Report for the Third Quarter of 2025 (hereinafter referred to as the Report) in Beijing. The Report reviews the global and China economic and financial operations in the first half of 2025 and the globalIndustry operation, and look forward to the economic and financial situation in the second half of 2025 and the global industry development trend.

　　According to the Report, in terms of China’s economic and financial situation, GDP is expected to increase by 5% in the third quarter and around 5% for the whole year.

　　China’s fiscal and monetary policies.

　　There is still plenty of room.

　　"In the first half of 2025, facing the rapidly changing external environment, China stepped up the implementation of more active and promising counter-cyclical regulation and control policies, with relatively stable domestic demand, better-than-expected exports, rapid industrial production growth and overall stable economic operation. It is estimated that GDP will increase by about 5.4% in the first half of the year." Liang Jing, head of the macroeconomic and policy team of the Institute, said when introducing the economic and financial situation in China in the Report.

　　Looking forward to the second half of the year, the Report mentioned that there are still many uncertainties and unstable factors in China’s economic operation. It is estimated that the GDP in the third and fourth quarters will increase by about 5% and 4.6% respectively, and the annual growth will be about 5%.

　　At the same time, the Report emphasizes that China’s ability to cope with internal and external risks and challenges is improving. There is still much room for fiscal and monetary policies, and the integration of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation is accelerated.Breakthroughs have been made in key technical fields, and industrial transformation and upgrading have been steadily advanced.

　　The "Report" believes that it is necessary to further increase the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies in the future. It is necessary to focus on the demand side, accelerate the promotion of existing policies, and actively reserve incremental policies. Fiscal policy should play a greater role in maintaining steady economic growth; Supply and demand work together to stimulate consumption potential and release domestic demand kinetic energy; Guard against external risks and challenges, and promote cooperation and development with high-level openness; Promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize with greater determination and strength; Optimize industrial policies and focus on solving outstanding problems such as mismatch between supply and demand and "involution" competition.

　　China business will be realized.

　　The same frequency resonance with the real economy

　　Regarding the development of the global banking industry, the Report believes that in the third quarter of 2025, the global economic recovery process was weak, the banking industry was under pressure, and the pace of scale expansion slowed down. However, the development momentum of emerging industries was strong, which provided new support for the profit growth of the banking industry. The asset quality performance was divided and the capital replenishment situation was stable.

　　Judging from the employment situation,Shao Ke, head of the banking and comprehensive management team of the Institute, said that China’s economy has maintained resilience and achieved steady growth, creating a good business environment for the banking industry. The banking industry has focused on the key direction of technology and finance, creating a new growth pole to serve the real economy, steadily improving its scale, consolidating its profitability, maintaining stable asset quality and good capital adequacy.

　　Specifically, in terms of asset quality, in the first quarter of 2025, the non-performing rate of China commercial banks was 1.51%, down 0.08 percentage points year-on-year; The balance of non-performing loans was 3.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%. Looking ahead, the Report predicts that the level of non-performing loans and non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks will remain low. First, policy efforts to promote sustained economic recovery will help improve the ability of business entities to repay loans. Second, commercial banks will pay more attention to credit risk management, and digital risk control technology will be more widely used. Third, commercial banks take multiple measures to promote the disposal of non-performing assets. On the whole, at the end of the third quarter of 2025, the growth rate of non-performing loans of commercial banks will be lower than the overall loan growth rate, and the non-performing loan ratio will gradually decline.

　　"In 2025, with the continuous efforts of moderately loose monetary policy and more active fiscal policy, banks will achieve the same frequency resonance with the real economy, and their support for the real economy will not be reduced. Loans and deposits will continue to drive the growth of assets and liabilities, and it is expected that the growth rate of assets and liabilities of commercial banks will remain at a high level throughout the year. " According to the Report, in the third quarter of 2025, driven by new investments in technology and finance, green finance and inclusive finance, the growth rate of industrial assets and liabilities is expected to remain at around 7.5%.