Will Israel ＂perform surgery＂ on Iran’s nuclear program alone？
Topic: picture channel
Profile picture: On November 2, 2006, in a military exercise held in the desert near Qom, a city in central Iran, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard was testing the Meteor -3 medium-range missile. The Iranian military successfully test-fired a number of medium-range "Meteor -3" missiles in the military exercises that began that day. The missile range can cover the whole of Israel and the US military bases in the Middle East. Xinhua news agency
On December 23, Washington post published a report that surprised readers. The article quoted David Satterfield, senior adviser to the US Secretary of State on Iraq affairs, as saying that the "highest level" in Iran decided to restrain Iraqi Shiite militia and reduce attacks on American soldiers in Iraq. The U.S. official said that Iran restrained the Iraqi Shiite militia it supported, which greatly reduced the number of attacks on the U.S. military by using advanced roadside bombs.
In an interview with Washington post, Satterfield said that although there may still be roadside bombs flowing into Iraq from Iran, the use of these bombs and the overall attacks have decreased, which must be related to Iran’s policies. Ryan Crocker, the US ambassador to Iraq, will hold the fourth round of talks with the Iranian ambassador to Iraq. Washington post quoted Crocker as saying that if the Iranian side confirmed that such a decision had been made, it would be a good start for the fourth round of talks.
Other reports also confirmed the above news. On December 21st, General William Fallon, the new commander of American forces in the Middle East, called on Iran to formally stop supporting anti-American militants in Iraq and Afghanistan. He made the remarks after visiting the wounded soldiers in a US military hospital in Germany. These soldiers were injured by powerful roadside bombs provided by Iran in Iraq. After visiting the hospital, Admiral Fallon said that Iran seems to have slowed down and may even have stopped providing such weapons. However, he hoped that Iranian officials would formally end their participation in anti-American activities in Iraq. Fallon said: "We really want to see Iran’s behavior change openly and stop training anti-American elements to use weapons. We know that they have been training like this, and we also know that there was training not long ago. We haven’t seen a signal that we really want to see, so we have to speculate on the reasons for the decrease in bombings compared with the past few months. "
It is reported that Iran seems to have slowed down the delivery of weapons to Iraq after a high-level meeting between the leaders of the United States and Iran. However, Admiral Fallon said that it is not clear whether the situation has changed because of policy changes or other reasons. Fallon said that American and Iranian diplomats have held three talks on the situation in Iraq, and he expects to hold another meeting before the end of this month. U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates also said that the turbulent situation in Iraq has obviously improved, especially in the past three months, the number of terrorist violence incidents has decreased by 62%, and the situation in Iraq is still improving. Therefore, some American troops stationed in Iraq will soon withdraw to China. Some commentators believe that this is a subtle change between the two countries after the US National Intelligence Agency announced that Iran stopped developing nuclear weapons.
Has Iran misinterpreted the US security assessment?
On December 3, the National Intelligence Assessment Report issued by the National Intelligence Agency of the United States pointed out that they had "high confidence" that Iran had suspended its nuclear weapons program at the end of 2003 under international pressure and no longer sought to become a nuclear weapon state. The declassified report pointed out that Iran did not restart this nuclear weapons program.
It is reported that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his cronies were very happy when they saw the report, and they thought that they had won the battle and made a great achievement. Ahmadinejad said that this is the greatest achievement of Iran in the past 100 years, and its importance exceeds the nationalization of oil companies. Later, some experts studied the report carefully and began to read between the lines. They said to Ahmadinejad, don’t be too happy. The Americans gave us a very clever report. First, the report says that Iran has a military plan. This is the first time. Although Americans always say this, this is the first time it has been written in a report. This is a valuable report published by 16 intelligence agencies in the United States.
As a result, the Iranian side began to worry, and most people in the Iranian leadership were worried about the results of the report. They are thinking, what are the consequences? What is Bush’s idea? As for other Iranians, many of them are disappointed. In their view, the Iranian authorities are indeed trying to develop nuclear weapons. These people think that the United States has made concessions to the Iranian authorities. Recently, however, critics, journalists and others have been explaining to Iranians that this is not a concession. On the contrary, Americans are saying that Iranians have the ability to develop nuclear weapons. The United States continues to put pressure on Iran over its nuclear program and calls on the United Nations to take new sanctions against Iran. The United States may resume its military plan at any time.
Experts believe that the U.S. intelligence assessment report mainly talks about the capability and intention of Iran’s nuclear program, that is, whether Iran is trying to make nuclear weapons. The difference between this assessment report and the 2005 report is that the 2005 report said that Americans thought Iran had a nuclear weapons program, but this year’s report thought Iran didn’t. The 2005 report said that if Iranians want to make nuclear weapons, they will be able to make nuclear weapons between 2010 and 2015. This year’s assessment report retains this statement.
Israel has a "criminal record" of "performing surgery" on Iraq’s nuclear program.
Israelis have completely different conclusions about Iran’s nuclear program. After the publication of the US National Intelligence Assessment Report by the US National Intelligence Agency, Israel categorically rejected the report. Israeli Defense Minister Barak said he thought the report was incomplete. He said that he believes that Iran has restarted its nuclear weapons program and Israel will solve the Iranian nuclear issue through its own way. For a time, the saying that Israel may "perform surgery" on Iran’s nuclear facilities spread.
American experts analyzed that Israel is really worried about Iran and Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons. Ahmadinejad’s remarks also give them reason to worry. Israel has publicly stated that if the United States and other countries do not solve the issue of Iran’s nuclear weapons, Israel will act alone. Israel is so small that it can be easily defeated by a nuclear attack, so they can’t let Iran develop nuclear weapons. It is for this reason that Israel bombed Syria’s nuclear research facilities earlier this year. The international community has not protested against this. Israel knows that if they take action against Iran, there will be no objection. Some people may express it in form, but they will not really object. French President Nicolas Sarkozy also said recently that he was worried that if Israel thought Iran was no longer under diplomatic pressure, it might take some kind of "unilateral action" against Iran’s nuclear program. The French president also said that there was a danger of war between Israel and Iran.
In fact, Israel has always wanted to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. As early as Sharon was in power, the tough Israeli Prime Minister said that Israel could not allow Iran to become a country with nuclear power. Israel has been preparing to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, and it also has the ability. When it comes to using force against Iraq, Israel is indeed "ahead of the United States." As early as 1981, Israel carried out a "surgical" air raid on the Ausilla nuclear reactor near the Iraqi capital Baghdad. On Sunday, June 7 of that year. Bei Jing, then Prime Minister, held an emergency cabinet meeting at his official residence in Jerusalem, and decided to carry out an air strike on the Iraqi "Tammuz 1" nuclear reactor, code-named "Operation Babylon". The Israeli Air Force selected top pilots to fly 14 fighters to form a commando team. In the afternoon, Israeli fighter formations evaded Iraqi radar and sneaked into Baghdad. After locking the target, Israeli warplanes dropped all the bombshells they carried. The whole air raid took less than 2 minutes. The "Tammuz-1" nuclear reactor was completely destroyed, a secret underground laboratory was also destroyed by high-explosive bombs, and two other buildings were also severely damaged. A young French scientist was killed on the spot. Although Iraqi anti-aircraft artillery fired back fiercely, it failed to hit the Israeli plane. At about 7 pm, all the participating planes returned to Israel safely.
Some commentators believe that Israel today is not Israel then, and of course, Iran now is not Iraq then. Iran believes that even if the United States does not attack Iran, Israel will eventually attack it. Therefore, there are two preparations and military preparations. Iran has a powerful revolutionary guard and now has a unified command system. Iran has also conducted new missile tests. Iran has set up secret organizations overseas, and then these organizations can launch attacks on American interests. Iranians believe that there is a real possibility of war. It is reported that Iran’s nuclear projects are hidden in reinforced underground facilities and scattered all over the country. These targets have a longer range than Syrian targets, and Israel must strengthen its attack capability to destroy these distant targets. This is very difficult for Israel. If the current dispute between the United States and Iran shows signs of mutual compromise, it will mean that the contradiction between Israel and Iran will intensify. How the relationship between the two countries has evolved is worthy of attention. (old)
Editor: Li Xiuwei